I think that increasingly, watch brands struggle to make anyone understand why anyone would want to buy a luxury watch at all. In a rational – or less irrational – world, watches would be bought at a price that has at least some relationship to actual quality in construction and content in terms of watchmaking. The last few years have not been a distinguished one for innovation in horology, holding the line in terms of movement quality in construction and finish, or even inventiveness in design. Even in independent watchmaking the preference seems to overwhelmingly be for round, sub-40mm, hand-wound watches which, for all that they may in many cases at least have gobs more real watchmaking content than anything from an established brand, are still basically from a playbook which has been around since the 1920s (in one form or another).
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If prices continue to go up, availability continues to be meager, and brands continue to think of their customers as possessed of both unlimited funds and limitless patience, I can see the industry entering a moribund phase in which it will have to work hard to regain the sense of interest, excitement, and pleasure in ownership which ought to characterize fine watchmaking.