@twt2
Jeg tror det svarer til alle som er bekymret for at Federal Reserve sin kraftig trykking skal kollapse Dollaren.
Verden er tørst for US$ og det skal holde seg en stund.
Ingen hyper-inflasjon kommer på Dollaren. Men Stagflation skal vi få, alle sammen.
Stagflation is the combination of slow economic growth, high unemployment, and a high rate of inflation.
www.investopedia.com
Det Federal Reserve gjør derimot er å undergrave verdens statsobligasjons markedet fordi ingen kan gjør som de.
Nå er det bare å vente for at den første stor
Bond domino faller: i Emerging Markedets området....Og deretter, EU skal ha problemer.
Det er derfor sentralbankene snakker om
Perpetual Bonds, noe som uansett er ingen løsning.
På lang sikt, markedet skal flytte fra
Bonds til
Commodities : sentralbankene skal aldri få det til å styre markedet.
Derfra forstår vi hva som skal skje med statene...
"The Federal Reserve has identified the Achilles heel of the world economy: the enormous global shortage of dollars. The global dollar shortage is estimated to be $ 13 trillion now, if we deduct dollar-based liabilities from money supply including reserves.
How did we reach such a dollar shortage? In the past 20 years, dollar-denominated debt in emerging and developed economies, led by China, has exploded. The reason is simple, domestic and international investors do not accept local currency risk in large quantities knowing that, in an event like what we are currently experiencing, many countries will decide to make huge devaluations and destroy their bondholders.
According to the Bank of International Settlements, the outstanding amount of dollar-denominated bonds issued by emerging and European countries in addition to China has doubled from $30 to $60 trillion between 2008 and 2019. Those countries now face more than $2 trillion of dollar-denominated maturities in the next two years and, in addition, the fall in exports, GDP and the price of commodities has generated a massive hole in dollar revenues for most economies.
If we take the US dollar reserves of the most indebted countries and deduct the outstanding liabilities with the estimated foreign exchange revenues in this crisis … The global dollar shortage may rise from 13 trillions of dollars in March 2020 to $ 20 trillion in December … And that is if we do not estimate a lasting global recession."
"The Federal Reserve knows that it has the largest bazooka at its disposal because the rest of the world needs at least $ 20 trillion by the end of the year, so it can increase the balance sheet and support a large deficit increase of $10 trillion and the US dollar shortage would remain."
"The Federal Reserve knows something else: In the current circumstances and with a global crisis on the horizon, global demand for bonds from emerging countries in local currency will likely collapse, far below their financing needs. Dependence on the US dollar will then increase. Why? When hundreds of countries try to copy the Federal Reserve printing and cutting rates without having the legal, investment and financial security of the United States, they fall into the trap that I comment in my book Escape from the Central Bank Trap: ignoring the true demand for their domestic currency."
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