Fant noe greier på reddit for en tid tilbake, klarte å finne tilbake til det nå.
Noe interessant å lese "back-of-napkin math" av bruker "Sporturawus", uansett hvor feil det måtte være.
«Good observation. Take it a step further:
This is my back-of-napkin math, by no means scientific, but I think it's logical and reasonable:
Rolex produces 1M watches a year.
Half of them are Ladies models. Makes sense if you look at the AD display cases and those around you every day, I see more women with Crowns on their wrists then men sometimes. AD's tend to be divided in half, right down the middle, men's side, ladies side.
That leaves 500K men's watches a year.
I'm going to take half that number and assign them to non-Sport models like the Datejust, Day Date, Cellini, Sky Dweller, and the Oyster Perpetual. If you know how popular the DJ is, and certainly the OP, you know that my 50% of men's watches is probably accurate, perhaps even understated.
That leaves 250K men's watches left per year.
I'm going to take 100K of those and assign them to Precious Metal watches across all lines, seems to me that 10% of all production dedicated to solid gold or platinum makes perfect sense and if the amount of real estate dedicated to PM's in display cases is any indication this number may be understated too.
Now we're down to 150K men's watches left, the Sport models.
There are 8 lines, and next to each are the number of SS and TT models offered:
Submariner (5)
Yacht-Master (8)
Daytona (7)
Sea Dweller (3)
Explorer (3)
GMT Master (5)
Air King (1)
Milgauss (2)
So that's 8 lines offered in 34 different variations.
If all things were equal across lines, you'd have 18,000 of each produced each year. 18,000 Submariner's, 18,000 Air Kings, etc. But that's probably not how it works, it would be weighed against the number of variations, and the popularity of each line, and the number of AD's that get a few of each at a minimum. Interesting reference point, however. There aren't a lot of Sport models made each year.
If we do the division across references, the 34 specific variations of these 8 lines, it would say there are 4,400 of each produced per year. Again, that's probably not how it works, there would be a fraction of that number, say, in Daytona's and a lot more in a model, say, like the Submariner. But again, an interesting reference point. There are a lot of varieties that need to be supported in the assortment, minimums that need to be met to get 1 or 2 to each AD per year, stretches things pretty thin.
My back-of-napkin math says it probably looks like this by-model:
35,000 Explorer (3)
30,000 Submariner (5)
30,000 GMT Master (5)
15,000 Yacht-Master (8)
15,000 Sea Dweller (3)
10,000 Milgauss (2)
10,000 Daytona (7)
5,000 Air King (1)
So if there are 1M watches made a year it sounds like a big number, right? "Rolex mass produces watches!" so they say. But dig deeper and Rolex is likely only making 30,000 GMT's a year and with 5 different variations in SS and TT that's a scant 6,000 Ceramic Pepsi's a year. And there are probably about 1M people who want them.
There isn't a SS Sport Rolex "shortage". They are somewhat rare products.»
